The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey results show hiring in Mining and Construction is expected to continue its upward trend in quarter four this year. Employers in the sector reported a Net Employment Outlook (NEO)[1] of +9%, up four percentage points quarter-on-quarter and nine percentage points year-on-year.

The survey, which measures the hiring intentions of nearly 1,500 public and private employers in Australia for the coming quarter, found 14 per cent of Mining and Construction employers indicated they intend to increase their headcount over the October and December timeframe and seven per cent plan to decrease, while the majority (76 per cent) said they would not make any change to their current workforce.

Richard Fischer, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup Australia and New Zealand, said the uptick in hiring intentions is purely driven by activity within the construction sector.

“Residential property construction and large infrastructure projects, mainly in Victoria and New South Wales, are spurring growth as we transition away from the mining boom.

“The $1.5 billion Victorian Infrastructure Package is driving significant investment in construction work across rail and major roads, while NSW is undergoing several station upgrades and major projects like the building of the WesConnex.”

These projects are also making an impact on hiring intentions regionally. The survey highlighted employers in Victoria are forecasting respectable jobs growth into the final quarter of the year, with 20 per cent indicating an increase in staffing levels. This has resulted in a NEO of +15%, which is up three percentage points quarter-on-quarter and six percentage points year-on-year. The overall hiring mood in New South Wales was also positive, reporting a NEO of +13%.

“It’s not overly surprising seeing Victoria and New South Wales posting solid employment growth. Especially with major infrastructure projects being undertaken in these states, in addition to the fact that they also house many of the jobs from the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and Services sectors, which have indicated a solid hiring pace for the quarter ahead,” Mr Fischer added.

Employers in Western Australia and the Northern Territory are showing moderate job gains into the final quarter of the year, reporting NEOs of +2% and +6%, respectively.

“As we continue to unwind from the mining boom, we’re seeing businesses in Western Australia and the Northern Territory diversifying their services as they transition away from the mining industry. Essentially, the slight uptick in these regions shows that there is a progression towards ‘normalisation’ taking place as companies begin to re-emerge from the mining boom.

National results

Across the nation, Australia’s hiring intentions are set to continue on a positive streak for the remainder of 2016. Of the 1,500 public and private employers surveyed, 18 per cent indicated they intend to increase their headcount over the October and December timeframe, while the majority (75 per cent) said they would not make any change to their current workforce.

The resulting national Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +11% is up two percentage points from last quarter, and five percentage points from the same time last year.

Mr Fischer said the uptick in hiring intentions nationally is a sign that employers are increasingly impervious to political and economic instability that has preoccupied much of the news cycle this year.

“Change and uncertainty, both globally and locally, seem to have become the ‘new normal’. Yet despite recent events like the Federal Election, a further cut to interest rates, and Brexit, Australia’s employment prospects are set to remain positive in the next quarter. This suggests that businesses are becoming more adept at blocking out the noise around economic and political issues – a trend we noted in the previous quarter also which was also marked by uncertainty.

“There are also obviously other indicators that help temper business’ response against uncertainty such as a relatively stable unemployment rate and the avoidance to date of the expected abrupt slowdown of the Chinese economy.

“This isn’t to say there hasn’t been an impact due to uncertainty, but on the whole businesses appear to be getting on with it, with expectations to hire also driven by transformation projects within their own businesses,” concluded Mr Fischer.

[1] The Net Employment Outlook is calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers anticipating a decrease in hiring activity from the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in employment. Seasonal adjustment is then applied to the data.

Table 1. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Region

Table 2. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Sector

Table 3. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Organisation size

Table 4. APAC Q4 2016 results